MLB: Explosive Predictions, HR and Strikeout Records in Play?

As the 2025 MLB season progresses, several baseball stars are showcasing exceptional performance, generating expectations about their final numbers. We analyze the projections of some of the most prominent players at the moment.

Cal Raleigh: Will he break the home run record for a catcher?

Cal Raleigh is on his way to making history. Currently, with his batting, he has hit his 49th home run, surpassing Salvador Perez’s record as the catcher with the most home runs in a season. Experts are debating whether Raleigh will maintain this impressive pace.

Raleigh could surpass 61 home runs, although not by much. The Mariners have 31 games remaining. Raleigh has had two stretches of 31 games this year in which he has hit at least a dozen home runs, the number he needs to reach 61. Now that he has surpassed Salvador Pérez, Raleigh can aim for the Mariners’ franchise record of 56, set by Ken Griffey Jr. in 1997.

Jeff Passan

His pace has slowed since the All-Star break, which isn’t surprising. He’s had only one day off since the break and strikeouts have piled up in August, including a five-strikeout game and several three-strikeout games. Is Raleigh wearing down from playing almost every game? In other words: under 61.

David Schoenfield

Schwarber vs. Ohtani: The Home Run Title Fight in the National League

Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani are projected to surpass 55 home runs. The question is: who will be crowned home run champion of the National League and with how many home runs?

Schwarber will win the home run title, connecting 56 this season. Historically, he has performed well in September and this year will be no exception. In his career, he has produced his second-highest slugging percentage (.521) in September, second only to June. Ohtani is also good at the end of the year, but this is becoming a very special season for the Phillies’ designated hitter. He is batting .577 against left-handed pitching, which will translate into a couple more home runs against lefties in September and will make the difference in the home run race.

Jesse Rogers

Schwarber will win the title, but he’ll get to 59. He’s figured out how to hit lefties and has absurdly even splits, with a .946 OPS against righties and .943 against lefties. And as hot as he’s been this season, he’s just getting warmed up, with 20 home runs in his last 45 games.

Buster Olney

Aaron Judge: Will he maintain his dominance in WAR?

Aaron Judge leads the majors with 7.3 WAR. The question is: What will be his final total? Judge has been cooling off, by his standards, after the All-Star break, with a batting line of .193/.346/.398 and five home runs in 24 games. It’s easy to wonder if the slump and the injury are related. Judge will most likely not play in right field every day when he is cleared to return to the field, so that would limit his WAR potential. Let’s go with 8.7 as the final number.

That 7.3 figure is Fangraphs’ version of WAR, and their projected pace tool brings him to 9.1. He’ll need to stay off the injured list to achieve that, and the pace doesn’t reflect that he might have to DH more often than not. That costs him positional value and the opportunity to add value to his fielding. He’s also looked rusty since coming off his last stint on the injured list. So, considering all that, I’ll say Fangraphs’ pace is a bit optimistic and I’ll go with 8.9 for the final number… which is pretty good.

Bradford Doolittle

Nick Kurtz: A Rookie with an OPS over 1,000?

Nick Kurtz has an OPS of 1.026. Will he finish the season as a rare rookie with an OPS above 1.000?

This could go either way. Of 497 players with at least 75 plate appearances, Kurtz is one of five with an OPS above 1,000. It’s encouraging that his numbers aren’t inflated by his home run rate; he can hit. If you remove home runs from everyone’s record, the Athletics’ first baseman still has an OPS in the top 25.

Bradford Doolittle

Rare is an understatement. The only qualified rookies since World War II with an OPS of 1.000 were Albert Pujols and Aaron Judge. Kurtz should reach the 502 plate appearances needed to qualify and, yes, will finish with an OPS of 1.000. How? His OBP is above .500 (!) in the second half as his walk rate continues to increase and pitchers pitch to him with increasing care. Kurtz is not only going to be one of the best hitters in the game, he already is.

David Schoenfield

Tarik Skubal: Will he reach the 247 strikeout mark?

Tarik Skubal is on pace to achieve 247 strikeouts. The question is: will he reach this number? Yes. Skubal has 200 strikeouts in 25 starts. He has at least six starts remaining, possibly seven if the schedule aligns correctly, and historically he has improved towards the end of the season. His September strikeout rate is the second highest of any month, and as he looks to become the first back-to-back American League Cy Young winner since Pedro Martinez in 1999-2000, finishing with a flourish will be paramount.

Yes, but barely. There’s a world where the Tigers clinch their division so early that they dial back Skubal’s starts a bit in his final outings, right? Then again, he’s likely to have a few outings that add up to more than the eight strikeouts he averages per start. That would put him at the 250 mark by the end of the month. And the Tigers are likely to get a first-round bye in the postseason, meaning Skubal can let it fly in September, knowing he’ll have a week off before taking the ball in Game 1 of the divisional round.

Jesse Rogers

Paul Skenes: Will he maintain his low effectiveness?

Paul Skenes leads the majors with an ERA of 2.07. Will his final mark be higher or lower?

I’ll say lower because it only makes sense for the Pirates to give him as much rest as possible for the rest of the season. Pittsburgh isn’t playing for anything, but Skenes has a chance to win the National League Cy Young award, and one would assume the Pirates will do everything they can to make that happen. He’ll close out the season somewhere around 180 innings.

Buster Olney

A little more for two reasons: 2.07 is such a low number, and Skenes hasn’t been as sharp recently. The right-hander has given up 10 runs in five starts in August, which equates to a 3.21 ERA in 28 innings, with his most recent start on Sunday, the best of the month, seven innings and three hits. As Buster wrote, the Pirates are likely to limit his workload down the stretch, so a significant increase won’t happen.

Jorge Castillo

Freddy Peralta: Will he get 20 wins?

Freddy Peralta has 15 wins. Will he be the first 20-game winner since 2023?

With Peralta failing to secure the 16th victory on Saturday, he faces an uphill battle. The Brewers could secure the first seed early, so they wouldn’t be pushing Peralta during the final week. But let’s say he has six more starts. He’s winning at a rate of .556 per start, so that’s 3.3 in six starts. Not enough! Peralta needs to win five of those last six starts, or all five if he only has five more opportunities. I think he’ll get 19 wins. The 20-game winner drought will continue.

Bradford Doolittle

I’ll say yes. Although we always complain about the lack of 20-game winners, we had one in 2023, one in 2022, one in 2021, two in 2019, two in 2018, three in 2016, two in 2015, and three in 2014. Yes, it’s becoming rarer, but we usually get at least one. So let’s hope Peralta is the only one.