F1 2026: Heading for Change, Driver Market in Full Swing

The Musical Chairs of Formula 1: Who Will Move in 2026?

The summer break in Formula 1 always brings with it the question that dominates half the year: who will go where? Traditionally, the August break marks the beginning of the “silly season”, similar to a transfer market or free agency in other sports. However, unlike these, there is no defined deadline for a driver to decide to change teams. Lewis Hamilton, for example, signed his contract with Ferrari for 2025 before Mercedes’ pre-season in 2024. The resumption of the season promises to be intense, with the Dutch Grand Prix (August 31) and the Italian Grand Prix (September 7) focusing attention on signings for 2026. This year’s crazy season has a new flavor, with the incorporation of a completely new team, Cadillac, which will join the grid next year, meaning two more available seats, expanding the field from 20 to 22 drivers.

Secured Teams for 2026

• McLaren: Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri
• Ferrari: Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton
• Aston Martin: Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll
• Haas: Esteban Ocon and Ollie Bearman
• Audi: Nico Hülkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto

The weeks and months before and after August are usually the busiest. Until recently, a key factor seemed to slow everything down: the future of Max Verstappen.

Mercedes: Russell Secured?

Now that Verstappen has reached the summer break third in the championship, the identity of the Mercedes driver lineup for next season seems clear. Russell, without a contract at the end of the season, did not have a new agreement on the table before the summer break, but the process of signing an extension is underway. The duration of that extension is a topic to be followed closely. Mercedes is expected to offer Russell a one-year contract to keep open the possibility of signing Verstappen next season, although Russell is looking for a longer deal. His situation is complicated because he both races for Mercedes and is managed by them, which limits his negotiating power. Kimi Antonelli, teammate, is expected to be retained for 2026. With the growing internal belief that Mercedes will be competitive under the new 2026 regulations, Wolff finds himself in an advantageous position. Offering short-term deals to Russell and Antonelli will give the team flexibility next year in a driver market that will likely be more open. Hamilton’s contract with Ferrari expires at the end of next season, and any departure or retirement of the seven-time world champion could create a domino effect throughout the grid, while Verstappen is likely to want to leave again if Red Bull remains uncompetitive within 12 months.

Cadillac: The New Entry

With the Verstappen-Mercedes situation resolved, the arrival of Cadillac, which will become the eleventh team on the grid next season, will dominate attention in the crazy season, with two seats available in a completely new project. The American team, overseen by General Motors and led by former Manor boss Graeme Lowdon, has made it clear that announcing its drivers has been a lower priority this year, as it focuses on building the operation from scratch.

Lowdon has spoken to as many drivers as possible since the team’s entry was confirmed in March, but two have stood out from the start. It is understood that race-winning free agents Sergio Pérez and Valtteri Bottas are at the top of the team’s wish list for the new season. News about one of them is expected before the Dutch Grand Prix at the end of August.

Valtteri Bottas.

As for the Americans, options are scarce. IndyCar’s Colton Herta was touted as a favorite when Cadillac’s offer became public, but he has distanced himself from the opportunity and seems unlikely to end the year with the IndyCar championship result required for the super license points he would need to be eligible for an F1 seat. Jak Crawford, a Formula 2 championship contender, is a possibility.

Alpine: Gasly on His Own?

Pierre Gasly has scored 100% of Alpine’s points this season, which highlights not only how much he has evolved since leaving Red Bull, but also how difficult it has been for his team to find a suitable teammate in the other car. Jack Doohan was immediately pressured when Alpine signed Franco Colapinto as a reserve driver before the season began, and the Australian driver did not deliver. Doohan was replaced at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, but Colapinto hasn’t done much better.

There are conflicting reports about Colapinto’s position in the team. Publicly, Alpine’s executive advisor, Flavio Briatore, has said that the Argentinian’s performance must improve rapidly if he wants to stay in the seat, and the team was linked last month with a mid-season move for Bottas. Such a move would likely tie the Finnish driver in 2026 as well, which would also not be unreasonable given Bottas’ long relationship with Mercedes, who will supply engines to Alpine from next year, but that seems to depend on whether he takes the Cadillac seat.

Reserve driver Paul Aron could also have the opportunity to prove himself at the end of the year. Sources close to the team suggested that Colapinto could stay beyond 2025 regardless of whether his form improves, given the importance of the money he brings.

Red Bull and Racing Bulls: What’s Up with Tsunoda?

While the attention in the last two months focused on Verstappen, it’s worth remembering that the future of his teammate, Yuki Tsunoda, is not clear beyond this season. Tsunoda was promoted to the team instead of Liam Lawson after only two races this season, but he has struggled in the seat alongside the four-time world champion.

The impending end of Red Bull’s association with Honda, which gave the team a discount on engine supply as part of the deal to promote Tsunoda, made it unlikely that the Japanese driver would continue beyond 2025, but that picture is harder to understand now that Christian Horner no longer leads the team. Horner’s replacement, Laurent Mekies, is a big fan, having worked with Tsunoda as team principal of Racing Bulls last year and in early 2025. Tsunoda’s difficult situation could also be favored by what has become a consensus in F1: Red Bull has built a horribly difficult car to drive for anyone other than Verstappen. The fact that Gasly, Pérez, Lawson and Alex Albon have failed alongside the world champion before Tsunoda, who was sublime in 2024 for the junior team, has only reinforced the feeling that Red Bull needs to work on the car as well as the driver. Technical-minded Mekies has already hinted at something like this, which means Tsunoda could have a lifeline to stay long-term. Red Bull junior driver Arvid Lindblad, 18, appears to be on a rocket ship in the lower categories. The Briton became the youngest F2 winner by winning in Jeddah as a rookie earlier this year. However, it has been a mixed season, and Red Bull might be reluctant to promote him too soon. If the path to Formula 1 is the one they choose for the exciting teenager, there is an obvious scenario. Sources within Red Bull have said that the only thing almost certain within the company’s two F1 teams at the moment is that Lawson will not get another chance in the senior team, which would suggest that he would be the one on the list if there was a strong desire to promote Lindblad in 2026. Mekies could also offer Lawson a lifeline similar to Tsunoda’s. Mekies managed Lawson when he replaced Ricciardo last year, and it was his form at the end of the season that earned the New Zealander his short promotion to Red Bull. Sources close to Lawson have said that the Kiwi has only recently shown glimpses of his former self on and off the track, suggesting that the blow to his confidence was huge. With Mekies now in a position that should influence the company’s broader driver decisions, the prospect of Lindblad having another year to develop and Lawson having one more season (his first uninterrupted F1 campaign) doesn’t seem as far-fetched as it might have been a few months ago. Of course, if Tsunoda were to be ousted at the end of the year anyway, everything would change: the likely scenario then would be that Isack Hadjar would move up and Lindblad would partner with Lawson in the junior team. With no big names on the market and a desire to rebuild both the perception of Red Bull’s driver decisions and the strength of their project in general, don’t expect to see any hasty decisions taken here: the Austrian company can wait before deciding the best way to proceed.