New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies has boosted their chances of reaching the final of the World Test Championship (WTC), scheduled for June 2021 at Lord’s.New Zealand is one step away from reaching the top spot in the Test ranking, being only 0.086 points behind Australia, after their victory in Wellington.
The situation generated some confusion when, for several hours after the match, the ICC’s prediction tool showed New Zealand at the top of the table. However, the ICC clarified in a tweet that Australia maintains the first place with 116.461 rating points, while New Zealand has 116.375.Australia will look to consolidate its lead in the home series against India.The two victories over the West Indies gave New Zealand 300 WTC points in four series, in the current cycle ending March 31, 2021. If they manage to repeat the 2-0 result against Pakistan, they will add 420 points in five series.This puts India in the need of getting five wins, or four wins and three draws, in their last eight test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to prevent New Zealand from reaching the WTC final at Lord’s.
In a scenario without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to score points in a series in Bangladesh, but due to the cancellation of some series, the ICC modified the classification criteria, going from absolute points to a percentage of points played.Australia currently leads the WTC table, with 82.2% of the points won. If they draw 2-2 against India, they will continue to lead with a percentage of 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70%. Australia also has a three-match test series scheduled in South Africa.If New Zealand wins its two matches against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played or 70% of the points played.India, with 360 points in four series played, will have played six series or 720 points at the end of its series against Australia and England. They will need to surpass 504 points to overtake New Zealand, which has 84 points per series or 70% of the points played. Each victory in the remaining test matches will be worth 30 points, and draws will contribute 10 points. They need five victories, or four victories and three draws, to overtake New Zealand.Regarding the rankings, Australia could increase its lead in first place or concede ground to New Zealand, depending on India’s performance against Australia and New Zealand against Pakistan.
