The recent victory of New Zealand over the West Indies has opened the doors to the final of the World Test Championship (WTC), which will be held in June 2021 at Lord’s.
After their victory in Wellington, New Zealand is very close to the top spot in the Test rankings. They are only 0.086 points behind Australia.
The situation generated some confusion, as the ICC’s prediction tool showed New Zealand at the top for several hours after the match. However, the ICC clarified via a tweet that Australia is in first place with 116.461 rating points, while New Zealand has 116.375.
Australia could cement its lead if it wins the home series against India. Meanwhile, New Zealand’s two victories over the West Indies earned them 300 WTC points from four series in the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021.
If New Zealand repeats the 2-0 result against Pakistan, it will finish with 420 points from five series.
This would force India to secure five wins (or four wins and three draws) in their last eight Test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to prevent New Zealand from reaching the WTC final.
Due to the impossibility of disputing some series because of the pandemic, the ICC modified the classification criteria, changing from absolute points to a percentage of points disputed, that is, points per series played.
Currently, Australia leads the WTC table, with 82.2% of the points won. If they achieve a 2-2 draw against India, they will continue to lead with a percentage of 74.17%. If they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70%.
If New Zealand wins its two matches against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played or 70% of the points played.
When India, which currently has 360 points from four series played, finishes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series or 720 points. They will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points played.
Each of their remaining Test victories will be worth 30 points, and draws will earn them 10 points. Five wins or four wins and three draws will allow them to surpass New Zealand.
Regarding the rankings, depending on how the India vs. Australia and New Zealand vs. Pakistan series go, Australia could extend its lead at number 1 or concede ground to New Zealand.
