The recent New Zealand sweep over the West Indies gives them a real chance of reaching the final of the World Test Championship (WTC), which will be played in June 2021 at Lord’s.New Zealand finished the series very close to the number 1 position in the Test rankings: they are 0.086 points behind Australia, after their innings victory in Wellington on Monday.However, the news was not without drama. For several hours after the match ended, the ICC’s prediction tool showed New Zealand at the top of the table, causing some confusion in the cricket community. This, however, appeared to be an error because the ICC clarified in a tweet that Australia is at number 1 with 116.461 rating points, while New Zealand has 116.375.The prediction tool also later reflected this classification.Australia will extend that slender lead if they win the home series against India, but two wins over the West Indies took New Zealand to 300 WTC points from four series in the current WTC cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021. If they repeat the 2-0 result against Pakistan later in their summer, they will finish with 420 points from five series.That will leave India needing five wins, or four wins and three draws, from their last eight Tests (away against Australia and at home against England) to deny New Zealand a place in the WTC final to be played at Lord’s in the English summer.In a world without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to go and win points in a series in Bangladesh, but because some series could not be played, the ICC had to change the qualification criteria from absolute points to a percentage of points played. Or, in other words, points per series played.Australia currently tops the WTC table, with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will still lead the table with a percentage of 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70. Australia also has a three-Test series scheduled in South Africa.If New Zealand wins its two Tests against Pakistan, they will finish with 84 points per series played or 70% of the points disputed.
By the time India, currently with 360 points from four series played, finishes its series against Australia and England, they will have played six series or 720 points. They will need to pass 504 points to surpass New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points played. Each of their remaining Test victories will now be worth 30 points, and draws will give them 10 points. Five victories or four victories and three draws will give them an advantage over New Zealand.
On the rankings front, depending on how the India vs. Australia series and the New Zealand vs. Pakistan series go, Australia could extend its lead at number 1 or concede ground to New Zealand.
