New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies has boosted their chances of reaching the final of the World Test Championship (WTC), which will be held in June 2021 at Lord’s. New Zealand came very close to reaching the number 1 spot in the Test rankings, being only 0.086 points behind Australia, after their innings victory in Wellington on Monday.
However, the news was not without drama. For several hours after the match, the ICC’s predictive tool showed New Zealand at the top of the table, which caused some confusion in the cricket community. This, however, appeared to be an error, as the ICC clarified in a tweet that Australia holds first place with 116.461 rating points, while New Zealand has 116.375.
Australia could consolidate their advantage if they win the series at home against India, but the two victories over the West Indies took New Zealand to 300 WTC points from four series in the current WTC cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021. If they repeat the 2-0 result against Pakistan later in their summer, they will finish with 420 points from five series. This will leave India needing five wins, or four wins and three draws, from their last eight Test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to deny New Zealand a place in the WTC final to be played at Lord’s in the English summer. In a world without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to earn points in a series in Bangladesh, but because some series could not be played, the ICC had to change the absolute points qualification criteria to a percentage of points played. In other words, points per series played. Australia currently leads the WTC table, with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will still lead the table with a percentage of 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70. Australia is also scheduled to play a three-match Test series in South Africa. If New Zealand wins its two Test matches against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played or 70% of the points played.By the time India, currently with 360 points from four series played, finishes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series or 720 points. It will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points played. Each of its remaining Test victories will now be worth 30 points, and draws will earn them 10 points. Five victories or four victories and three draws will put them ahead of New Zealand.
On the rankings front, depending on how the India vs. Australia series and the New Zealand vs. Pakistan series go, Australia could consolidate its lead at number 1 or cede ground to New Zealand.
