The recent victory of New Zealand over the West Indies in the test series has given them a real chance to reach the final of the World Test Championship (WTC), which will be played in June 2021 at Lord’s. New Zealand finished the series one step away from the number 1 position in the test ranking, remaining only 0.086 points behind Australia, after their victory in Wellington.
However, the news had its dose of drama. For several hours after the match, the ICC’s prediction tool placed New Zealand at the top of the table, which caused some confusion in the cricket community. This appeared to be an error, as the ICC clarified in a tweet that Australia holds first place with 116.461 ranking points, while New Zealand has 116.375.
Australia could consolidate its lead if it wins the home series against India, but the two victories over the West Indies took New Zealand to 300 WTC points from four series in the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021. If they repeat the 2-0 result against Pakistan later in their summer, they will finish with 420 points from five series. This will leave India needing five wins, or four wins and three draws, from their last eight Test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to deny New Zealand a place in the WTC final to be played at Lord’s in the English summer. In a world without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to earn points in a series in Bangladesh, but because some series could not be played, the ICC had to change the criteria for absolute points classification to a percentage of points played. Or, in other words, points per series played. Australia currently tops the WTC table, with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will continue to lead the table with a percentage of 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70. Australia also has a series of three tests scheduled in South Africa. If New Zealand wins its two tests against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played or 70% of the points played.By the time India, currently with 360 points from four series played, finishes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series or 720 points. They will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points played.
Each of their remaining wins in the tests will now be worth 30 points, and draws will earn them 10 points. Five wins or four wins and three draws will give them an advantage over New Zealand. Regarding the rankings, depending on how the India vs. Australia series and the New Zealand vs. Pakistan series go, Australia could consolidate its lead at number 1 or cede ground to New Zealand.
