New Zealand close to the World Test Championship final
The recent victory of New Zealand over the West Indies has positioned them favorably to reach the final of the 2021 World Test Championship (WTC), which will be held at Lord’s in June. New Zealand was a step away from reaching the top spot in the Test ranking, being only 0.086 points behind Australia. This happened after their victory in Wellington. However, the situation generated some initial confusion. The ICC’s prediction tool showed New Zealand at the top for several hours after the match. Subsequently, the ICC clarified that Australia maintains the first position with 116.461 rating points, while New Zealand has 116.375. Australia could consolidate its lead if it wins the home series against India. For their part, New Zealand’s two victories over the West Indies earned them 300 WTC points, accumulated in four series during the current WTC cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021. If New Zealand repeats the 2-0 result against Pakistan later in their season, they would add 420 points in five series. This would mean that India would need five wins, or four wins and three draws, in their last eight Test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to prevent New Zealand from reaching the WTC final.In a scenario without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to score points in a series in Bangladesh. However, due to the impossibility of playing some series, the ICC modified the classification criteria, moving from absolute points to a percentage of points played, i.e. points per series played.
Australia currently leads the WTC table, with 82.2% of points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they would still lead with 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage would fall to 70%. If New Zealand wins both matches against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played, or 70% of the points played. When India completes its series against Australia and England, they will have played six series, or 720 points. They will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series, or 70% of the points played. Each of their remaining victories will now be worth 30 points, and ties will earn them 10 points. Five victories, or four victories and three ties, will put them ahead of New Zealand. Regarding the rankings, depending on how the India vs. Australia and New Zealand vs. Pakistan series unfold, Australia could extend its lead at number 1 or concede ground to New Zealand.
