New Zealand Presses India: Cricket World Cup Final at Lord’s

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The recent victory of New Zealand over the West Indies in the test series has strengthened their chances of reaching the final of the World Test Championship (WTC), which will be played in June 2021 at Lord’s. New Zealand was a step away from reaching the top spot in the test ranking, being only 0.086 points behind Australia, after their victory in Wellington. However, the news was accompanied by some uncertainty. For several hours after the match, the ICC’s prediction tool placed New Zealand at the top of the table, generating confusion. The ICC clarified via a tweet that Australia occupies first place with 116.461 rating points, while New Zealand has 116.375. Subsequently, the prediction tool reflected this ranking. Australia could extend their lead if they win the home series against India. For their part, New Zealand, with two victories over the West Indies, added 300 WTC points from four series in the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021. If New Zealand repeats the 2-0 result against Pakistan, it will finish with 420 points from five series. This would leave India needing five wins, or four wins and three draws, from their last eight test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to deny New Zealand a place in the WTC final, which will be played at Lord’s. In a world without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to add points in a series in Bangladesh, but due to the cancellation of some series, the ICC had to change the classification criteria from absolute points to a percentage of points played. That is, points per series played. Currently, Australia leads the WTC table with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will continue to lead with a percentage of 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70%. Australia also has a series of three tests scheduled in South Africa. If New Zealand wins both tests against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played or 70% of the points played.

When India finishes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series or 720 points. It will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points played. Each of their remaining victories in the tests will be worth 30 points, and draws will give them 10 points. Five victories or four victories and three draws will give them an advantage over New Zealand.

Regarding the rankings, depending on how the India vs. Australia and New Zealand vs. Pakistan series unfold, Australia could extend its lead at number 1 or concede ground to New Zealand.
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