India vs Australia: Crucial Equations for the Cricket World Cup Final

Australia vs India: A Key Duel with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India transcends the category of simple competition, becoming a series of great relevance. With the World Test Championship (WTC) final on the horizon in June, the result of this series has significant weight for both teams, directly impacting their path to qualification. New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies, with a score of 2-0, places them in third place in the championship table. If they manage to replicate this result against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to work hard to maintain their position above them.

The Outlook for India

India has played 4 series, accumulating 360 points, with a points percentage of 75%. They have two series remaining in the current cycle: against Australia and England. Both series consist of four tests, which implies the same point allocation: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets the maximum points in their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. This sets 70% as the target India must surpass to stay ahead of New Zealand. To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can happen in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four and drawing three.

Given India’s impressive home record, they have a good chance of getting the maximum points against England. This means they will need at least one win or three draws in the four tests in Australia to reach the 150-point target.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win awards 30 points and a draw 10, the only way to reach 110 is by winning all four matches.

The Situation in Australia

Australia, with 3 series played, accumulates 296 points and a point percentage of 82.22%. They need to surpass 420 points to reach a percentage above 70%, as long as the series against South Africa is played. If this series is canceled, their goal will be to surpass 336 points. The series against South Africa, of three tests, will award 40 points for a victory and 13 for a draw.

Despite injury concerns, Australia remains in a solid position, thanks to the points already obtained. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will add 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will propel them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.