India Needs 5 Wins: WTC Calculation vs Australia and England

Australia vs. India: A Duel with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India transcends the category of a simple sporting encounter, establishing itself as a series of great importance. In addition to the inherent rivalry, both teams have a lot at stake, especially with the final of the World Test Cricket Championship on the horizon in June. New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies, with a score of 2-0, places them in third place in the championship table. If they manage to replicate this performance against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to work hard to maintain their position.

The Outlook for India

India has played 4 series, accumulating 360 points, which translates to a percentage of 75. There are still two series left in the current cycle: against Australia and against England. Both series consist of four tests, which implies the same point allocation: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets the maximum points in their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. This means that India will have to exceed that 70% to stay ahead of New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four and drawing three.

Given India’s strong home record, they have a good chance of getting the maximum points against England. This means they will need at least one win, or three draws, in the four tests in Australia to reach 150 points.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points in the series against England. The only way to reach 110 points is by winning all four matches, as a win awards 30 points and a draw 10.

The Situation in Australia

Australia has played 3 series, accumulating 296 points, with a percentage of 82.22. Australia needs to surpass 420 points to reach a percentage above 70%, if the series against South Africa takes place. If this series is canceled, their goal will be to exceed 336 points. Given that the series against South Africa is expected to consist of three tests, there will be 40 points at stake per victory and 13 per draw.

Despite injury concerns, Australia is in a solid position thanks to the points already accumulated. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will add 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa would propel them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.